Hydrometeorological Research and Forecasting, no. 1 (399)
"Proceedings of the Hydrometcenter of Russia"

Edited by E.S. Nesterov, Doctor of Geographical Sciences

The results of studies in various fields of hydrometeorology are presented. For the operational meteorological support of aviation, various approaches to determining the tropopause characteristics calculated on the basis of output data of the global numerical weather prediction model are considered. An assessment of the quality of simulating freezing precipitation in Russia with the INM-CM5 climate model is given. The results of studying large-scale meteorological features of the 2025 Northern Hemisphere summer season are presented. The sensitivity of the ICON-Ru model configuration with grid spacing of 2 km to changes in sea ice extent and sea surface temperature in predicting the formation and development of polar lows is investigated. The causes for the fluctuations in the Caspian Sea level during the periods of its rise (1978–1995) and fall (1950–1977 and 1996–2023) are studied. The analysis of changes in water temperature in the Aniva Bay (the Sea of Okhotsk) based on instrumental observations in 1949–1994 and satellite data for 1981–2025, as well as on measurements in 2023 is presented. A skill of forecasts of water level variations during the 2025 spring flood is evaluated by the Sberbank methodology for 1083 river gauges in Russia. An improved runoff formation model and a long-term forecast of meteorological characteristics based on the INM-CM5 model are proposed. A possibility of using machine learning methods to predict ice phenomena on the Kola Peninsula rivers is evaluated.

Summaries .pdf


Contents

Meteorological forecasts, mathematical modeling

Ivanova A.R., Sokolova U.O., Komasko N.I., Skriptunova E.N., Shakina N.P., Zavialova A.A.
A concept of global tropopause prediction in the Russian Area Forecast Center - summaries .pdf

Gibadullina A.I., Leonov I.I., Kislov A.V., Sokolikhina N.N.
An evaluation of changes in the frequency of freezing precipitation in Russia in the 20th–21st centuries using the INM-CM5 model - summaries .pdf

Sumerova K.A., Khan V.M., Tishchenko V.A., Vilfand R.M.
Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation over the Northern Hemisphere in Summer of 2025 and Its Contribution to Extreme Weather in Russia - summaries .pdf


Computing and forecasting of the marine environment parameters

Nikitin M.A., Revokatova A.P., Lomakin I.R., Rozinkina I.A., Rivin G.S.
Evaluation of the ICON-Ru model sensitivity to the changes in the sea ice extent and sea surface temperature in forecasting the formation and development of polar lows - summaries .pdf

Ostrovskaya E.V., Pavlova A.V.
Relationship of the Caspian Sea level and water balance components with large-scale atmospheric circulation indices (1950-2023) - summaries .pdf

Myslenkov S.А., Pishchal’nik V.M., Arkhipkin V.S., Latkovskaya E.M.
Climatic changes in water temperature in Aniva Bay - summaries .pdf


Hydrological forecasts

Simonov Yu.A., Khristoforov A.V., Koliy V.M., Kovalev K.A., Malygin E.V., Osiptsov A.A., Sotiriadi N.S.
Analysis of the spring flood of 2025 forecasting using an artificial intelligence model - summaries .pdf

Semenova N.K., Simonov Yu.A., Shatokhin M.V.
Adaptation of the runoff formation model for several southern rivers of Russia - summaries .pdf

Kanashin S.A., Banshchcikova L.S., Sumachev A.E.
Forecasting the dates of initial ice formation on the Kola Peninsula rivers - summaries .pdf