Hydrometeorological Research and Forecasting, no. 4 (398)
"Proceedings of the Hydrometcenter of Russia"

Edited by E.S. Nesterov, Doctor of Geographical Sciences

The results of testing the surface wind gust nowcasting system with application of machine learning algorithms to the output of the pySTEPS nowcasting model and the COSMO-Ru2 numerical weather prediction system are presented. Over the period of 2021–2023, the statistical characteristics of radar cloud parameters for thunderstorms and hail events in Western Siberia are calculated. A comparison of temperature and wind simulations using COSMO-Ru6ENA and ICON-Ru13/6N29 models with radiosonde data for the European part of Russia is performed. The new SnowDraw snow cover model is tested for the Elbrus glaciation conditions.An accuracy of forecasting the wind wave height in the Tsemess (Novorossiysk) Bay using the WAVEWATCH III spectral model and the GFS wind forecast is investigated. A set of methods for short- and medium-range forecasting of water levels on Russian rivers is proposed. A methodology for forecasting maximum water levels in the spring season on the rivers of the Zhaiyk-Caspian basin is presented. A comparative analysis of drought indices is performed to assess drought conditions in agricultural areas of Northern Eurasia. For the period of 1958–2024, a statistical structure of the field of productive moisture reserves in a meter soil layer under grain crops for the European part of Russia is studied. An analysis of the parameters of soil freezing in the Arkhangelsk region for the period of 1961–2020 is performed.
This collection is of interest to both specialists and general public studying hydrometeorology.

Summaries .pdf


Contents

Meteorological forecasts, mathematical modeling

Smirnov A.V., Kiktev D.B., Muravev A.V.
Wind gust nowcasting using numerical forecasts, radar technologies and machine learning: implementation, capabilities and limitations - summaries .pdf

Gorbatenko V.P., Kizhner L.I., Apostolidi C.T., Karpova A.A.
Evaluation of the information content of radar data in the analysis of frontal cumulonimbus clouds in Western Siberia - summaries .pdf

Revokatova A.P., Kuznetsova I.N., Kirsanov A.A.
Comparison of temperature and wind speed forecasts for the COSMO-Ru/icon configurations in the European part of Russia for six months of 2025 and during the episode of adverse meteorological conditions in Moscow - summaries .pdf

Drozdov E.D., Toropov P.A.
Testing a new SnowDraw snow cover model for climate forecasting of Elbrus glaciation dynamics - summaries .pdf


Computing and forecasting of the marine environment parameters

Rybalko A.D., Myslenkov S.A., Kruglova E.E., Grigoriev A.V., Senchenko V.G.
Evaluation of Wave Height and Wind Speed Forecast Quality in the Tsemess Bay of the Black Sea - summaries .pdf


Hydrological forecasts

Simonov Yu.A., Khristoforov A.V., Yumina N.M., Semenova N.K., Volov I.S., Shevchenko A.I.
Short- and medium-range forecasting of water levels on Russian rivers based on statistical methods - summaries .pdf

Sairov С.B., Tillakarim T.A., Serikbay N.T., Aitymova B.B.
Improvement of the methodology for forecasting spring runoff characteristics of rivers in the Zhaiyk-Caspian basin under the conditions of available hydrometeorological information - summaries .pdf


Agrometeorological forecasts

Emelina S.V., Khan V.M.
Comparative analysis of drought indices to assess drought conditions in agricultural regions of Northern Eurasia - summaries .pdf

Klang P.S., Tarasova L.L., Cherkasova A.V. Peculiarities of spatiotemporal variability of soil moisture in the European part of Russia - summaries .pdf

Grishchenko I.V. Soil freezing trends in the Arkhangelsk region in a changing climate - summaries .pdf