Hydrometeorological Research and Forecasting, no. 3 (397)
"Proceedings of the Hydrometcenter of Russia"

Edited by D.Ya. Pressman, PhD of Physical and Mathematical Sciences

In addition to a review on the state of the wind gust nowcasting, the article collection examines: seasonal variations in temperature and tropopause height in the Southern Hemisphere; results of implementing publicly available programs for computing atmospheric radiation fluxes into the SL-AV model; results of the WRF-ARW model forecast of the Krasnoyarsk urban heat island; a neural network model for forecasting daily precipitation taking into account data on the atmospheric electric field strength; methodology for 16-day forecasting of ice thickness in the Caspian Sea and Sea of Okhotsk; analysis of long-term variability of Arctic sea currents; analysis of the group structure of storm waves; a neural network model for assessing the regional yield of winter wheat at the North Caucasus Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring; difficulty in accounting for weather anomalies such as those that occurred in 2023/2024 in the Russian Federation when forecasting the yield of several agricultural crops. The results of testing technologies and methods recommended for implementation in 2024 by the Roshydromet Central Methodological Commission for Hydrometeorological and Heliogeophysical Forecasts (CMCF) are presented. This collection is of interest to both specialists and general public studying hydrometeorology.

Summaries .pdf


Contents

Meteorological forecasts, mathematical modeling

Muravev A.V., Kiktev D.B., Smirnov A.V.
Wind gust nowcasting using numerical forecasts, radar data and machine learning: definitions and terms, observational tools and models - summaries .pdf

Sokolova U.O., Ivanova A.R., Skriptunova E.N. Extratropical tropopause features in the Southern Hemisphere based on the upper-air sounding data - summaries .pdf

Fadeev R.Yu., Tolstykh M.A., Biryucheva E.O., Goyman G.S. Inclusion of ecRad parameterization in the SL-AV atmosphere model and its effect on atmospheric circulation at annual and seasonal timescales - summaries .pdf

Bykov A.B., Vetrov A.L., Kalinin N.A.
Extreme frost forecasting in Krasnoyarsk using the WRF-ARW regional model - summaries .pdf

Bekkiev A.M., Mashukov I.Kh., Shapovalov V.A.
Application of atmospheric electric field strength measurements and machine learning methods in predicting daily precipitation in the summer months: A case study for the city of Nalchik - summaries .pdf


Computing and forecasting of the marine environment parameters

Nesterov E.S., Zhupanov V.D., Maksimov A.А., Fedorenko A.V.
Verification of numerical forecasts of sea ice thickness for the Caspian Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk in the 2023/2024 winter - summaries .pdf

Ipatov A.Yu., Kuzmin S.B.
Variability of currents in the Kara, Laptev, East Siberian, and Chukchi seas as a result of mooring data analysis - summaries .pdf

Garmashov A.V., Zapevalov A.S.
Group structure of waves during the Black Sea storm on November 25-26, 2023 - summaries .pdf


Agrometeorological forecasts

Kleshchenko A.D., Savitskaya O.V., Vdovina Ya.A.
Estimation of average regional expected winter wheat yield using a fully connected neural network - summaries .pdf

Tarasova L.L., Klang P.S., Pavlova A.V., Sumerova K.A.
Overview of agrometeorological conditions during the 2024 growing season - summaries .pdf


Results of testing new and improved technologies, models and methods for hydrometeorological forecasting, recommended for introduction into operational practice according to the resolutions of the Roshydromet Central Methodological Commission for Hydrometeorological and Heliogeophysical Forecasts in 2024 and confirmed by adoption certificates

Vil’fand R.М., Kruglova Е.N., Kulikova I.А, Khan V.М., Tolstykh М.А.
Improved dynamic and statistical method for 30-day forecasting of surface air temperature - summaries .pdf

Resnyanskii Yu.D., Zelenko А.А., Stepanov V.N., Strukov B.S., Khan V.M., Volodin E.M., Gritsun A.S., Tarasevich М.А., Bragina V.V.
Method for seasonal forecasting of sea surface temperature and sea ice state based on the INM RAS Earth system model and the data preparation system of the Hydrometcentre of Russia - summaries .pdf

Vrazhkin А.N., Kravchuk L.P., Lebedev А.А., Tain V.N., Shcherbinina T.P.
Quality assessment of results of operational tests of the system for predicting the ice characteristics (concentration, thickness) of the Bering Sea, Japan Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk with a lead time of 10 days - summaries .pdf

Zelenko A.A., Resnyanskii Yu.D., Strukov B.S., Zaichenko M.Yu.
Improved System for Forecasting Wind Wave Parameters in the World Ocean: Verification results - summaries .pdf

Dynment L.N., Ershova А.А., Porubaev V.S.
Results of testing the automated method for forecasting a prevalent orientation of discontinuities on the Laptev Sea ice cover with a lead time to three days - summaries .pdf