Hydrometeorological Research and Forecasting, no. 1 (391)
"Proceedings of the Hydrometcenter of Russia"

Edited by E.S. Nesterov, Doctor of Geographical Sciences

The results of the studies in various areas of hydrometeorology are presented. The impact of perturbations of the parameters of subgrid-scale processes in the SL-AV atmosphere model on the characteristics of atmospheric circulation in ensemble subseasonal forecasts is studied. The seasonal variability of the wind waves frequency spectra in the Black and Azov seas is investigated. Based on numerical modeling, an analysis of the recurrence of storm waves in the Laptev, East Siberian and Chukchi seas, taking into account ice conditions during 1979–2021, is presented. The changes in the level of the Caspian Sea from 1950 to 2023 are considered, the main focus is on the intense sea level drop after 2000. The selection of methods for streamflow forecasting is analyzed on the basis of taking into account factors that limit the lead time and accuracy of forecasts, as well as the results of applying these methods to specific water bodies. The methodology for short- and medium-range forecasting of water discharges and levels for the Don basin rivers is described. An assessment of the climatic and anthropogenic contributions to long-term fluctuations in seasonal runoff of the Ural river basin is given. The analysis of regional changes in climate comfort in various climate zones is presented.

Summaries .pdf


Contents

Meteorological forecasts, mathematical modeling

Alipova K.A., Tolstykh M.A., Fadeev R.Yu.
Application of stochastic parameter perturbations in SL-AV model version for long-range forecasting - summaries .pdf


Computing and forecasting of the marine environment parameters

Rybalko A.D., Myslenkov S.A., Arkhipkin V.S.
Analysis of seasonal variability in wind wave spectra in the Black and Azov seas based on classification - summaries .pdf

Myslenkov S.A., Kruglova E.E., Bagatinsky V.A.
Recurrence of storms in the Laptev Sea, East Siberian and Chukchi Seas - summaries .pdf

Nesterov E.S., Pavlova A.V.
Influence of atmospheric circulation fluctuations on the Caspian Sea level - summaries .pdf


Hydrological forecasts

Borshch S.V., Simonov Yu.A., Khristoforov A.V.
Selection of methods for streamflow forecasting - summaries .pdf

Khristoforov A.V.
Short- and medium-range streamflow forecasting of the Don basin rivers - summaries .pdf

Yumina N.M., Magritsky D.V.
Assessment of the climatic and anthropogenic contribution to long-term fluctuations in seasonal river runoff in the Ural river basin - summaries .pdf


Climate research

Semenova A.A., Saltykova M.M., Banchenko A.D.
Regional features of the dynamics of thermal comfort indicators in a changing climate - summaries .pdf