Hydrometeorological Research and Forecasting, no. 4 (386)
"Proceedings of the Hydrometcenter of Russia"

Edited by D.Ya. Pressman, PhD of Physical and Mathematical Sciences

The section General Circulation and Characteristics of the Atmosphere presents the main features and characteristics of the Madden-Julian oscillation according to reanalysis data, which are useful in predicting the intraseasonal variability of tropical weather and by the paper on the results of synoptic analysis and calculations with the WRF-ARW model obtained when studying conditions for the hard rime accretion in the polar Urals. The section of hydrological forecasts considers the following issues: the influence of uncertainty in meteorological elements during the period of lead time on the accuracy of long-term river runoff forecasts; the forecast of water inflow into the Tsimlyansk Reservoir and spring runoff of the Tobol basin rivers. The papers on agrometeorology present the results of improving the methodology for dynamic and statistical forecasting of winter crop yields taking into account autumn-winter soil moisture; the regression methodology for evaluating winter wheat yields for individual regions of the Central Chernozem Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, with distinguishing the principal components of satellite, meteorological, and statistical data; the analysis of the dynamics of agroclimatic resources of the Republic of Tatarstan based on the data on long-term changes in radiation, temperature, and time characteristics of the growing season; the analysis of the relationship between agrometeorological conditions of natural zones and the spring wheat yield in the north of the Republic of Kazakhstan during 1991 to 2021. The final paper presents the results of testing and prospects for the development of the air pollution forecasting technology for the Moscow region based on the CHIMERE and COSMO-ART chemical transport models.


Contents

General circulation and characteristics of the atmosphere

Nabokova E.V., Kulikova I.A., Khan V.M.
The main features and characteristics of the Madden-Julian Oscillation according to the ERA5 reanalysis - summaries .pdf

Leonov I.I.
Formation conditions of hazardous hard rime accretion in the Polar Urals - summaries .pdf


Hydrological forecasts

Borsch S.V., Vilfand R.M., Simonov Yu.A., Khristoforov A.V.
Assessment of the influence of uncertainty in meteorological elements on the error of long-term river runoff forecasts - summaries .pdf

Borsch S.V., Simonov Yu.A., Khristoforov A.V., Yumina N.M.
Forecasting of water inflow into the Tsimlyansk Reservoir - summaries .pdf

Akilina V.A., Borsch S.V., Simonov Yu.A., Khristoforov A.V., Yumina N.M.
Long-term forecasting of spring runoff characteristics of the Tobol basin rivers - summaries .pdf


Agrometeorological forecasts

Lebedeva V.M., Naidina T.A.
Consideration of autumn-winter soil moisture in a dynamic-statistical model for winter crops yield forecasting - summaries .pdf

Perevedentsev Yu.P., Pavlova V.N., Shantalinsky K.M., Mirsaeva N.A., Nikolaev A.A., Tagirov M.Sh.
Agroclimatic conditions in the Republic of Tatarstan during 1966–2021 - summaries .pdf

Kleshchenko A.D., Savitskaya O.V.
Using the principal component analysis to construct regression models for estimating the average regional winter wheat yield for separate regions of the Central Chernozem Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring - summaries .pdf

Baisholanov S.S., Akshalov К.А., Aueskhanov Д., Baimukanova О.
The relationship between spring wheat yield and agrometeorological indices in the North Kazakhstan region of the Republic of Kazakhstan - summaries .pdf


Atmospheric processes and air pollution

Kuznetsova I.N., Nakhaev M.I., Kirsanov A.A., Borisov D.V., Tkacheva Yu.V., Rivin G.S., Lezina E.A.
Testing and prospects of air pollution prediction technology based on CHIMERE and COSMO-Ru2ART chemical transport models - summaries .pdf