Hydrometeorological Research and Forecasting, no. 4 (382)
"Proceedings of the Hydrometcenter of Russia"

Edited by A.A. Vasilieva, Doctor of Geographical Sciences

The results of developing short-range numerical weather prediction based on the COSMO-RuBy (Hydrometcentre of Russia) and WRF-ARW (Belhydromet) atmosphere models for creating unified products are presented. The classification of spatial verification methods with their application for ensemble forecasting is given, the corresponding software tools are listed. Estimates of the Earth surface influence on the accuracy of numerical prediction of air temperature on the territory of Belarus are obtained. The method for analyzing the structure of the South Asian Low is described, taking into account the thermal regime of the underlying surface. The case of severe glaze ice (ice pellets) in Vladivostok in November 2020 is analyzed. The method for long-range forecasting of the time of breakup in the Vyatka River basin is described. A need to take into account the sources of aerosol air pollution for assessing and forecasting environmental conditions in Moscow is discussed. The analysis of air pollution in Primorsky Krai in 2019–2020 according to GMAO/NASA satellite monitoring data is presented. The impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on the European ecosystem is analyzed. For the first time, the informational section publishes an overview of current and expected seasonal climatic anomalies based on the results of assessment by the meteorological services of the CIS countries. A consensus probabilistic forecast for air temperature and precipitation on the territory of Northern Eurasia is presented for the upcoming winter season of 2021/2022.


Contents

Hydrodynamic weather forecast

Rozinkina I.А., Rivin G.S., Burak R.N., Аstakhova Е.D., Alferov Yu.V., Blinov D.V., Bykov Ph.L., Vaskova D.V., Volkova V.А., Vorob’eva Е.V., Zayko P.О., Zhabina I.I., Nedachina А.Yu., Prockharenya M.I., Еliseev G.V.
Forming of the products of non-hydrostatic modelling systems for short-range weather prediction COSMO-RuBy (Hydrometcentre of Russia) и WRF-ARW (Belhydromet) - summaries .pdf

Bundel A.Yu., Muraviev A.V., Olkhovaya E.D.
Overview of spatial verification methods and their application to ensemble forecasting - summaries .pdf

Lysenko S.А., Zaiko P.О.
Estimates of the Earth surface influence on the accuracy of numerical prediction of air temperature in Belarus using the WRF model - summaries .pdf


General circulation and characteristics of the atmosphere

Leonov I.I., Sokolikhina N.N.
Formation conditions of an ice storm in Vladivostok in November 2020 - summaries .pdf

Shipko Yu.V., Kolychev O.V., Dykov S.A., Kyznetsov I.E., Zakusilov V.P.
A method for analyzing generalized characteristics of the South Asia Low structure taking into account a thermal regime of underlying surface - summaries .pdf


Hydrological forecasts

Pavroz Y.A.
Experience in developing a method for long-term forecasting of the ice breakup time for the Vyatka River basin - summaries .pdf


Air pollution

Krivosheev V.V., Stoliarov A.I.
The influence of the COVID-19 first wave on the European ecosystem - summaries .pdf

Gubanova D.P., Vinogradova A.A., Skorokhod A.I., Iordanskii M.A.
Abnormal aerosol air pollution in Moscow near the local anthropogenic source in July 2021 - summaries .pdf

Vasilevsky D.N., Vasilevskaya L.N., Lisina I.A., Mushta B.B.
Analysis of air pollution in Primorsky Krai in 2019-2020 according to GMAO/NASA satellite monitoring - summaries .pdf


Informational notes

Khan V.M., Vil'fand R.M., Emelina S.V., Kaverina E.S., Kulikova I.A., Sumerova K.A., Tishchenko V.A., Tolstykh M.A.
Overview of current and expected seasonal climatic anomalies for the winter 2021/2022 with their possible impact on the economy, as estimated by the meteorological services of the CIS countries - summaries .pdf