DOI: https://doi.org/10.37162/2618-9631-2020-4-96-109

Feedback structure and EFAS flood warning verification for the rivers in the northwestern Russian Federation / Romanov A.V., Yachmenova M.V. // Hydrometeorological Research and Forecasting, 2020, no. 4 (378), pp. 96-109.

Based on the example of flood warning data provided by EFAS for the territory of Northwestern Administration for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring in 2018-2020, the structure of the systematized issues of the EFAS portal is analyzed. The issues determine a feedback for the year-round monitoring of the accuracy of flood forecasting using the LISFLOOD base model, as well as its calibration. Several most important feedback sections are highlighted, that allow improving significantly a procedure for the quantitative and qualitative differentiated assessment of short- and medium-range flood forecasts. Using the results of the numerical analysis, a general description of the EFAS flood warning system quality and the prospects for the participation of the Russian Federation in it are given.

Keywords: flooding, hydrological forecasts, forecast lead time, feedback, forecast accuracy

Tab. 2. Fig. 7. Ref. 7.