Methods to estimate maximum convective velocity for the diagnosis and forecasting of severe convective weather events / Alekseeva A.A. // Hydrometeorological Research and Forecasting, 2020, no. 2 (376), pp. 6-22.

Methods for calculating the maximum velocity of convective updrafts in clouds based on output data of the REGION hydrodynamic model (Hydrometcentre of Russia), as well as on satellite and radar information, are considered. The accuracy of predicted maximum convective velocities largely depends on the accuracy of surface air temperature and humidity prediction. The diagnostic calculations of maximum convectivevelocity based on satellite and radar data are characterized by the high spatial (about 4 km) and temporal (10-15 minutes) resolution. They allow updating a short-range forecast of severe convective weather events, especially the place and time of their occurrence. The proposed approach to the determination of maximum convective velocity in mature convective clouds as well as its calculation based on satellite and weather radar data was developed at Hydrometcentre of Russia. It is utilized in the methods for forecasting severe convective weather events in summer implemented to operational practice for developing new approaches to the diagnosis of convection parameters from DMRL-C data and for constructing the maps of severe convective weather events produced by «Planeta» Research Centre.

Keywords: maximum convective velocity, REGION hydrodynamic model, satellite data, DMRL-C Doppler radar data, forecast, diagnosis

Fig. 4. Ref. 35.