Vulnerability of the pastures of Southern Kazakhstan to climate change / Baisholanov S.S., Abdrahmetov M.A., Ablaisanova G.M. // Hydrometeorological Research and Forecasting, 2020, no. 1 (375), pp. 190-203.

A vulnerability of pastures in Southern Kazakhstan to climate change is investigated. The heat availability and moisture availability of the vegetation period of pasture plants under conditions of the expected climate in 2030 and 2050 are predicted. By 2050, it is expected that the heat availability will increase by 15 %, the moisture availability will decrease by 4–10 %, and the climate aridity will grow by 5–10 %. The productivity of pasture plants, livestock capacity, and optimum pasture load under conditions of the expected climate in 2030 and 2050 are predicted. By 2050, the productivity is expected to decrease by 10–25 % for the plain pastures and by 30–40 % for the mountain pastures. This will lead to the reduction in livestock capacity and to the increase in the optimum pasture load by 10–24 % for the plain pastures and by 40 % for the mountain pastures.

Keywords: pasture, climate change, heat availability, moisture availability, productivity, livestock capacity, optimum pasture load

DOI: https://doi.org/10.37162/2618-9631-2020-1-190-203

Tab. 5. Ref. 10 .