Verification of heavy precipitation forecasts of the SL-AV20 global operational atmosphere model / Travova S.V., Tolstykh M.A., Shashkin V.V. // Hydrometeorological Research and Forecasting, 2020, no. 1 (375), pp. 96-112.

The SL-AV20 operational global atmosphere model forecasts of heavy precipitation simultaneously falling on the territory with a typical size of about 100 km are analyzed. These forecasts are verified for most of the 2019 summer period for some territories situated in the zones of potential floods. The skill scores of heavy precipitation forecasts for the days preceding the floods in the analyzed regions are considered separately. The analysis revealed that the heavy precipitation forecasts with the lead time to three days (in some cases, to five days) can be considered successful.

Keywords: precipitation, numerical weather prediction, heavy precipitation forecast, global atmosphere model, verification of deterministic precipitation forecast

DOI: https://doi.org/10.37162/2618-9631-2020-1-96-112

Tab. 2. Fig. 3. Ref. 35 .