Hydrometeorological Research and Forecasting, no. 1 (371)
"Proceedings of the Hydrometcenter of Russia"
Edited by V.M. Khan

Summaries - (PDF)


This edition is thematically divided into two parts. The first part presents the results of estimation and prediction of the elements of the atmospheric circulation and the hydrological regime. The possibilities of reproducing river floods by means of numerical simulation are discussed; mechanisms for the formation of orographic turbulence and the perspective for its prediction; methods of analyzing convective processes in the atmosphere over the oceanic regions; hypothetical possibilities of active influence on planetary wave processes. The second part contains a set of articles prepared on the themes of the 15th session of the North Eurasian Climate Forum of the CIS countries on seasonal forecasts (NEACOF) and on topics related to climate change, and long-range meteorological forecasting. The issues of monitoring and forecasting climate variability in the territory of specific regions are considered; the ability to predict heat waves on the intraseasonal time scale; results of the comparison of parametric and non-parametric approaches to probabilistic interpretation of ensemble seasonal forecasts. The edition concludes with an informational note describing the success of the consensus forecast for the summer of 2018, compiled during the 14th session of NEACOF.


Contents

Estimation and forecasting of components of atmospheric circulationand hydrological regime

Churiulin E.V., Krylenko I.N., Frolova N.L., Belyaev B.M., Rozinkina I.A.
Flood estimation for the Sukhona River based on the joint useof ECOMAG and COSMO-Ru models

Shakina N.P.
Orographic turbulence: generation mechanisms and forecasting

Fil’ A.Y., Krokhin V.V., Bokhan V.D., Veriatin V.Y.
Some methods of convective activity analysis in the Northwest Pacific

Klemin V.V.
On the theoretical possibility of Rossby wave stabilization


Climate variability research and long-range forecasting

Perevedentsev Y.P., Vilfand R.M., Shantalinskii K.M., Guryanov V.V., Nikolaev A.A., Ismagilov N.V.
Monitoring and prediction of climate variability in the Volga Region

Kruglova E.N., Kulikova I.A., Tishchenko V.A., Khan V.M.
Forecasting of Heat Waves on Subseasonal Timescales

Kryjov V.N.
Comparison of the parametric and non-parametric approaches to probabilistic interpretation of ensemble seasonal predictions

Grishchenko I.V.
Trends in the occurrence of thaws in the Arkhangelsk region

Brusova N.E., Kuznetsova I.N., Nahaev M.I.
Precipitation regime features in the Moscow region in 2008-2017


Informational notes

Khan V.M., Tishchenko V.A., Vilfand R.M., Kulikova I.A., Kruglova E.N., Birman B.A., Berezhnaya T.V. Analysis of consensus forecast for summer 2018