Proceedings of Hydrometcentre of Russia. Vol. 364
Hydrometeorological forecasts

Edited by E.S. Nesterov

Summaries - (PDF)


The results of investigations in various fields of hydrometeorology are presented. Preliminary results of the global ensemble medium-range forecast system development are presented. A method is outlined for atmosphere mechanical turbulence forecasting for aviation. An assessment of the radiation transfer algorithm in the mesoscale atmosphere model COSMO is described. Conditions of abnormal winters formation in the Atlantic-European region in 2009-2012 are considered. Analysis of cyclones formed over West Siberia during the period of 1976-2015 is presented. Synoptic conditions that contributed to the development of a strong squall in the Kursk region in April 2017 were analyzed.
An overview of recent modelled and observations-derived estimates of the Atlantic meridional circulation and the meridional heat transport over the 2004-2013 period is presented. The Azov, White and Barents seas level numerical simulation results are considered. The assessment of ice conditions in the Strait of Tartary and in Peter the Great Bay of Japan sea by means of the typing of winters on the basis of the sum of degree days of frost and on the basis of the ice cover situation is made. Ice conditions in the Azov Sea and in the Kerch strait in winter 2016-2017 are analyzed.
The collection of papers is intended for specialists in the hydrometeorology area.


Contents

General circulation and characteristics of the atmosphere

Rogutor V.S., Tolstykh M.A., Mysiak V.G.
Ensemble forecast system based on Kalman local ensemble filter

Shakina N.P., Skriptunova E.N., Ivanova A.R.
Forecast of mechanical turbulence in the lower atmosphere layer for the aviation

Polukhov A.A., Chubarova N.Y., Rivin G.S., Shatunova M.V., Tarasova T.A.
Assessment of the clear sky radiation simulated using COSMO model based on precise calculation and observation in Moscow

Pokhil A.E.
Evolution of a group of cyclonic vortices in the Earth rotating atmosphere

Nesterov E.S.
Abnormal winters in in the Atlantic-European region in 2009-2012

Tunaev E.L., Gorbatenko V.P., Podnebesnykh N.V.
Distinctive features of cyclogenesis over the Territory of Western Siberia during 1976–2015

Peskov B.E., Golubev A.D., Alekseeva A.A., Dmitrieva T.G.
Analysis of conditions of the occurrence of a strong squall in the Kursk region on 3 April 2017


Marine forecasts

Stepanov V.N.
The Atlantic meridional heat and volume transports from ocean models and observations

Popov S.K., Lobov A.L.
Modeling of the sea level changes of the Azov Sea in 2015-2016

Korablina A.D., Kondrin A.T., Arkhipkin V.S.
The White and Barents Seas surges numerical simulation for period 1979-2015

Myslenkov S.A., Krechik V.A., Soloviev D.M.
Water temperature analysis in the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea based on thermistor chain observations and satellite data

Dumanskaya I.O.
Distinctive properties of the typing of the situations in the Sea of Japan (in the Strait of Tartary and Peter the Great Bay) on the basis of severity of winters and on the basis of the ice cover of these regions

Fedorenko A.V.
Ice conditions in the Azov Sea and in the Kerch Strait in winter 2016/2017


Agrometeorological forecasts

Strashnaya A.I., Bereza O.V., Tishtshenko V.A.
The influence of agrometeorological conditions on yield of sunflower seeds in the Southern Federal District


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